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Semi-Bluff (Analysis)

There is no doubt that Phil Hellmuth has a very successful poker career. He sustained a list of WSOP bracelets of all time with fifteen, five defeats more than tied for the second (Doyle Brunson, Phil Ivey, and Johnny Chan). But “poker brat” might be better known for the explosion and water when he lost the pot. Not to damage the action, but this hand is no exception. That does not mean we cannot improve our poker strategy from analyzing hands, so let’s get dive!

Preflop.

Hands started with a $ 100 / $ 200 curtain and UTG straddled up to $ 400 from Alan Keating. Fold action to Jennifer Tilly on the button that raises $ 1,200 with 6 4 . Phil Hellmuth is next to act on SB and calls with 5 . The BB fold and Keating decided to squeeze up to $ 4,000 with K 2 . Tilly and the second Hellmut called. Tilly and Keating are both very deep, each sitting on a stack of $ 288,000 and $ 228,000. Phil Hellmuth has $ 64,000 behind.

Preflop Analysis.

46s clearly towards the bottom of a good button opening range, but the increase in tilly is really fine. Because it was a trimmed pot, he had an extra blind to pass through, so he could consider folding it, especially if 3-bet curtain aggressively. However, the hand of the connector type that keeps performing very well in position and stacked in, and because both of them occur, the increase makes sense.

Phil Hellmuth must we think in his place from small blind. Aces wheels that are suitable perform well like a preflop explosion because of their card removal and equity when called. Reraising also gave him the opportunity to reduce it and deny other curtains from seeing cheap failure.

For Alan Keating, K2S makes more sense as a call than a salary increase. In general there are two ways you have to build the range of your 3 bets in the curtain, linear or polarized. Not to say that the 3-bet k2s here is terrible, and maybe preferably to fold it, but calling is the best choice. K2S does not have post-failed playback so that hands like a2s. If you think “if A2S is a good 3-bet rather than how bad K2S really?” Well, we can check. I connect both hands to equilab to the range of button calls that make sense and A2S has equity 4.5% more than K2S!

In addition, A2S has more playback with the potential of straight wheels. With the action back to Jennifer Tilly he has a pretty interesting situation. He can be able to bet with this hand as a snapping if he plays a strategy of 4 stakes are polarized. The call must be fine because he is very deep and has a position for the whole hand. Finally, folding was fine and the 46s were near the bottom of the open stockpiling range. So he plays it well, but this is one place where he can have any choice. Phil Hellmuth also has a close decision. He gets almost 3.5: 1 in his call and closes action with suitable ACE that makes interesting calls. On the other hand, he came out of the position for all hands which meant it would be difficult for him to be paid if he made a strong hand. That being said, folding might be better than calling here, but if a call is -ev it might not be much.

Failure

Flop comes 4 5 J and the pot is $ 12,400. Kerek Hellmuth in the dark, C-Bets Keating $ 7,000, and both Tilly and Hellmuth make calls.

bad domino

FLOP Analysis.

Keating betting here makes sense. He can still represent all the advantages, a Jack set, or AJS. The council is dry enough and his opponents must fold many of their ranges.

However, smaller sizes are preferred because they achieve the same thing. If he bet around $ 5,000, he risks less to win the same number and hands as ACE-High or six pocket still put into a difficult place. That said, if you are always 3-betting hands as weak like K2S, and always C-betting failures, you will find too much bluffing. With only overcard and drawing flush backdoor he really doesn’t fail, so he can check some frequencies too.

Tilly’s call is good. A 4 or A 6 improves it for what will almost always be a winning hand, and he can also take equity at 2, 3, 7, or 8. He of course is not excelted about it, but has enough a piece to call.

Hellmuth is on the same ship as Tilly. He didn’t trigger, but he closed the action, had a kicker over the second partner, and a backdoor dropping draw. He definitely wants to see at least one more card.

Turn

The turn is K Make a board 4 5 J k and the pot is $ 33,400. Check Hellmuth, Alan Keating bet $ 18,000, folds Tilly, and Hellmuth moves all for $ 57,000. Keating makes a call.

Turn Analysis

Keating betting made sense as he hit the best card on the deck for him. If his opponents know he is too often bluffing and failure then he will definitely want to bet when he makes a value.

Check also makes sense. Even though he really increased, he could still be behind for the king, KJS, better 45, or a set of four or five years. In addition, sometimes checking with this hand protects the range of examination and gives him a good cliff catcher for this road or river.

Hellmuth certainly can’t fold based on the opportunities he gets and his chances of improving. The question is should he fold or raise?

Maintenance is preferred. There is a lot of value he can represent and he has to balance them with some cliffs. A 5 Here is one of the best snapping because it blocks Aces and Ace-King and has a lot of equity when called.

Keating betting made sense as he hit the best card on the deck for him. Hellmuth’s Shove. If he bets to fold these situations, he will only multiply. If he thinks that Phil Hellmuth has never or very rarely bullying here then he can find folds, but (clear) it doesn’t happen.

River

They decided to run it twice. The first river is K Locking half pot for Keating. After losing half the pot Hellmuth still had hope, and gave Alan kind of praise by saying he made a good call.

Everything was fine, he made a good call, I had a set half time. Tomorrow when he made a call, he will die, and he will call.

The second river is 8 , so the spoon keating is all. Hellmuth reaction:

F * cking, I knew he was above tilted from the previous hand, he made him 4K before failure with K2, then he was a miracle king in turn, he was so f * cking could be predicted. I know every hand what Alan has, and he still won both!

River Analysis

I have to say I like Phil’s strategy on the river. If you are going to insult your opponents by complimenting backhanded after losing half, it’s always good to balance that ranges from direct and direct insults after losing all pots.

It has become a Phil’s strategy for the whole career, and is happy to see him sticking to his weapon.

Last Thought

There are some chat today about how the poker economy dries. With breakers it becomes more accessible and everywhere, some worry that Holdem without limits is on his last leg. Happy to see hands like this and realize that the poker will immediately be with us for a very, very long time. Even on the highest bet, with millions of dollars in tables, errors are made almost every hand. When your opponent makes a mistake, there is an opportunity for you to win.

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